We, as a micro-version of the retained search industry, is seeing some interesting trends. While the data from varying studies is all over in terms of direction, search firms like Abeln, Magy, Underberg & Associates that work in different locations/cities are seeing some positive economic signs.

Incremental Gains in Manufacturing

Our manufacturing clients, regardless of specific product line, have been reporting incrementally improving results – since November 2009. While not back to pre-recession levels, they are seeing positive signs of improvement.

Unemployment level for people with a 4-year college degree (and over age 24)

We reported this in a past Blog entry – while today we learned of a ‘lowered’ unemployment rate (to 9.5%), we also learned that the rate for the category listed above dropped to 4.4% (see http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t04.htm). In any economic model, this is considered full employment.

What trends ARE we seeing?

The retained search industry is often considered a 6-month leading indicator of the economy. Here is what we are seeing:

1. Pent up demand: companies are starting to fill positions that were budgeted for in late 2008 (for filling in 2009). The initiatives that were to be started are coming back.
2. Operational excellence and revenue generation: operations and sales (high-level individual contributors or leaders) are commonly the two functional areas that lead companies out of a recession. We are seeing those positions from our clients.
3. Retirements are being talked about again: when the Dow was at 6500, people postponed their retirement plans. When it got to 10,000 (regardless of this past week!), these discussions started again. Companies need to back-fill these key roles.
4. Difficulty filling roles: as mentioned in the past, companies are having difficulty finding people to fill their key roles. We are seeing more searches where the client is not seeing what they want through their web postings and advertisements. Simply put, they are again turning to search.

Is this a trend or a short-term ‘blip’?

I wish my crystal ball was clearer . . . . . we have been seeing the above trends since March 1st – four full months. Interestingly, the clients that came to us in March had been seeing their business incrementally increase for four months, for them starting the prior November (2009).

We’ll commit to keeping you up on what we are seeing. Stay tuned!

We all know the number – 9.9% is the national unemployment rate for April 2010. We also all know that the ‘number’ is not a perfect calculation. It is, however, a relative number – higher than 7% and lower than 12%. Some of us know the State of Minnesota rate – 7.4% (it is the March number; they need a longer period of time to come up with the April number). A few of us know the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington rate – 7.8% (also the March number).

What if you have a Bachelor’s degree or higher?

This is where the numbers get interesting. We have always talked about the importance of education. In each search we have conducted (459 and counting!), the importance of education and continuing education is discussed. Without going back to count, I will venture to guess that over 95% of our clients require a bachelor’s degree; many want more.

What is FULL employment?

When I studied macro economics in college, my instructor was Walter Heller. He had been (MANY years earlier) the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors for President John F. Kennedy (no age jokes here please!). While I can NOT say that I remember everything from that class, I do remember that he stated that full employment was between 3.0% and 5.0% unemployment. His point at that time was that you needed some unemployment for a healthy economy – assuring some room for movement.

Government websites – are they ever easy to read?

Check out http://www.bls.gov/news/release/empsit.t04.htm. This is the website that breaks down the unemployment rate by education level (for the age 25+ population). The conclusion is clear if you are advising people about going to/finishing college.

From a search perspective, it continues to support the trend we are seeing – that candidates for senior level positions are in great demand as the general economy slowly improves. We mentioned last week that we are seeing candidates considering multiple opportunities and getting multiple offers. This data may help further our understanding of why.